Predicting Commercial Real Estate Supply: An Analysis of the Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast CRE Indexes
Announcement and Press Release
6.27.18
In 2007, Allen Matkins and the UCLA Anderson Forecast entered into a partnership to develop new knowledge on commercial real estate markets in California. The concept from its inception was to create unique data that would provide a window into the future trajectory for each of four commercial spaces: office, industrial, retail and multi-family. Now, after 11 years of semi-annual surveying of office markets and 10 years for industrial markets, it is time to take a first look at the quantitative predictive power of the survey. To be sure, the survey results, codified in a sentiment index, have provided insight already. The question asked in this article is to what extent the qualitative corresponds to statistically regular patterns – patterns that may be exploited in forecasting through the second decade. We find a significant relationship, with a few exceptions, between the survey results and the level of new building activity three years into the future.
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